Bitcoin is Tanking
Why?
Every few weeks, one of my friends sends me the same message. “Gerald, what’s going on with Bitcoin? Is it going to zero?”
No. It’s not going to zero. Sit down, pour some of my delicious Brixton culture rum — and let me walk you through it. Because this is my favourite time to write about crypto. Not when everyone’s a genius at the top. Now. When it hurts.
Bitcoin is tanking. It’s not the first time, and it won’t be the last. That’s the whole point.
“But Saylor sold”
Here’s what spooked everybody. Michael Saylor — the man who built an entire company around never selling Bitcoin, the guy whose whole personality is “we will never sell” — sold some Bitcoin. So that’s it, right? If even Saylor is out, it’s over.
Except look at the actual numbers. His company sold 32 coins. Thirty-two. They still hold 843,706. That’s 0.0038% of the stack, sold to cover a dividend payment — and Saylor’s own pledge is to buy 10 to 20 coins for every one he sells.
So yes, technically, the man who said never sell, s” sold. It’s a symbolic moment. But it’s not him giving up and running for the door. It’s a guy selling one tree and telling you he’s about to plant ten more. Don’t confuse the headline with what actually happened.
The thing nobody wants to remember
Bitcoin moves in a roughly four-year cycle. Every four years, it rips up to a new all-time high — that’s just the highest price it has ever traded at. And every four years — without fail — it falls off a cliff afterwards. This is not a bug. This is the asset.
Here’s every cycle so far:
Cycle peak All-time high (the peak) Biggest drop after Bottom
2011 ~$32 -93% ~$2
2013 ~$1,150 -85% ~$200
2017 ~$19,800 -86% ~$3,200
2021 ~$69,000 -77% ~$15,500
2025 ~$126,200 -50% so far ~$64,000 (today)
Read that bottom row again. We topped at about $126,200 in October 2025. Today we’re around $64,000. That feels brutal. It feels like the end.
It’s a 50% drop. By Bitcoin’s standards, that’s mild. Every single previous cycle fell at least 75% from the top. We’re not even there yet.
So where could this go?
If history rhymes — and with Bitcoin it always rhymes — a deeper fall from here wouldn’t surprise me at all. From the $126k peak:
-70% → about $38k
-75% → about $32k
-80% → about $25k
Could we see the low- to mid-$30,000s? Absolutely. It would be painful. It would also be completely, boringly normal.
But here’s the thing: even though a 75% fall could happen — it has every other cycle — most people don’t actually think it will this time. Something’s changed. Big serious money is in Bitcoin now — banks, funds, the kind of investors who used to laugh at it. There’s more real money holding it than ever before, and that tends to cushion the fall. A lot of smart people think this cycle stops at a 60-70% drop instead of the usual 80%-plus. The flip side: that big money can also panic and rush for the door fast, and lately some of it has. So I’m not pretending I know the exact bottom. Nobody does.
What I’m doing
I’m walking, saving my Uber money and spending every penny buying.
The whole game runs backwards from how it feels. It feels safest at the top when everyone’s rich and confident, and most dangerous right here when it’s red, and the group chat’s gone quiet. But the top is where you overpay, and the bottom is where you load up.
I’m not telling you to buy — I’m not your financial advisor, this isn’t advice, it can absolutely go lower, only ever risk what you can afford to lose. I’m just telling you what I’m doing. Waiting. Watching. Buying :-)
Let’s go. 🚀
GVDP